Al-Ittihad FC 7-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al Wehda Club travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.40 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Wehda Club, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 61% and Al Wehda Club 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Al Wehda Club 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.71 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.160 / defence 1.066 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.891 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.365. Data: 36 Al-Ittihad FC games / 36 Al Wehda Club games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wehda Club 3.45. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Wehda Club 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.71 / Al Wehda Club 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.160 / def 1.066 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.891 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al Wehda Club xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ittihad FC 7 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.16) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.22
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.29
Al Wehda Club xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.29 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 18W 6D 12L from 36 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 18L across 36 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wehda Club heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 9W 2D 6L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 4W 2D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.39 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 18W 6D 12L in their last 36 games (1.67 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 11W 7D 18L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2024, when Al-Ittihad FC won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 76%, Al Wehda Club 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Al-Ittihad FC and 53% for Al Wehda Club. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Wehda Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 47% of Al Wehda Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 53% of Al Wehda Club's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Wehda Club 7-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.71 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.29 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 5.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.07 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 29%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 67%, Al Wehda Club 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.