Al-Ittihad FC 0-5 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.30 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ittihad FC, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Al-Ettifaq — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 47% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 62% | Al-Ettifaq 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.123 / defence 1.131 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.900 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.361. Data: 60 Al-Ittihad FC games / 60 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 / Al-Ettifaq 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.123 / def 1.131 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.900 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 5 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.90x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.51
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.39 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 37W 11D 12L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 20W 18D 22L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.13 PPG from 30 outings (20W 4D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.07 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 11D 12L in their last 60 games (2.03 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.13 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 43%, Al-Ettifaq 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 33% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%; Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-5 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.39 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 36%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 62%, Al-Ettifaq 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.