Abha 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Abha welcome Damac to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Abha have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Damac have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Abha have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Abha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Damac have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Abha's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–4 with Damac winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Damac have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 57% versus Damac 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 68% | Damac 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.56 xG and Damac 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.004 / defence 1.254 | Damac attack 0.870 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.374. Data: 60 Abha games / 60 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 38% | Draw 26% | Damac 36%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Damac lead the H2H ledger, but Abha carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 38% | Draw 26% | Damac 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Abha 1.56 / Damac 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.004 / def 1.254 | Damac attack 0.870 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Abha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Damac xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Damac kick off?
Abha vs Damac kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Damac?
Abha 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Abha vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Damac part of?
Abha vs Damac is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 38% chance of winning, Damac a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Abha and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Damac?
Record (5 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 0 | Damac 4W.
What form are Abha and Damac in?
Abha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Abha's attack at 1.00x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.83
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Abha xG
Total xG
3.06
1.50
Damac xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Abha and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Abha and 1.50 for Damac, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Abha have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 18W 7D 35L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Damac's form line: 19W 17D 24L from 60 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.02 PPG, Damac on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Damac have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Damac in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 18W 7D 35L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Damac have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Damac away?
Abha's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.67 PPG; Damac away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Damac runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
4
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Damac have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Abha 0-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 63%, Damac 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Abha) and 50% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Abha's games and 57% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Abha's matches and 50% of Damac's.
Do Abha and Damac tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Damac in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Abha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Abha and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.56 xG and Damac 1.50 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Abha fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Damac landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Damac attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 38% | Draw 26% | Damac 36%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 68%, Damac 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.02 PPG, Damac 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.