Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Al Taawon have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Hilal Saudi FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al Taawon (2.80 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Al Taawon managing 1 and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2024, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–0 Al Taawon — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% versus Al Taawon 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% | Al Taawon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.98 xG and Al Taawon 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.467 / defence 0.864 | Al Taawon attack 0.945 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.338. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.467 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 41 games and Al Taawon's last 41.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.73 | Draw 4.64 | Al Taawon 4.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.98 / Al Taawon 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.467 / def 0.864 | Al Taawon attack 0.945 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Taawon xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 58% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.94x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 41 games and Al Taawon's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.64
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.07
1.09
Al Taawon xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
3%
35.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.09 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.85 PPG on a 38W 3D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 19W 13D 9L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.90 PPG from their last 20 home games (19W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 7W 9D 4L from their last 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.98 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al Taawon's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Al Taawon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al Taawon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 38W 3D 0L in their last 41 games (2.85 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 19W 13D 9L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.90 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al Taawon 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 12 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al Taawon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Al Taawon 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, Al Taawon 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 35% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al Taawon in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 55% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 35% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 60% of Al Taawon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taawon 2-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.98 xG and Al Taawon 1.09 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.47 / defence 0.86 against Al Taawon attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 20%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, Al Taawon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taawon's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.85 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.