Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Ettifaq away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2024, ended Al-Fayha 2–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Fayha win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 58% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 58% | Al-Ettifaq 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Al-Ettifaq have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.924 / defence 1.269 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.045 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.350. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Fayha's projected output down. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 41 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 41.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.56 | Draw 4.31 | Al-Ettifaq 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).

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