Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kingdom Arena plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Shabab (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al Shabab's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across the 10 H2H matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins, with Al Shabab managing 1 and 2 draws.
The 10 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Sep 2026, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–0 Al Shabab — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals — 7 wins from 10 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% versus Al Shabab 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Shabab 49%). Note also that Al Shabab surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 80% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.61 xG and Al Shabab 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.178 / defence 0.770 | Al Shabab attack 0.912 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.477. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Al Shabab's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 45 games and Al Shabab's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 | Draw 3.40 | Al Shabab 4.53. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.61 / Al Shabab 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.178 / def 0.770 | Al Shabab attack 0.912 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al Shabab xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 48% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.18x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.91x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 45 games and Al Shabab's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.40
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.04
Al Shabab xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
4%
22.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.04 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 45 games, going 35W 9D 1L for 2.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.09 PPG from 45 outings (11W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.44 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 17W 3D 1L across their last 21 home games, a 2.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 21 away games (3W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.42 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 35W 9D 1L in their last 45 games (2.53 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.57 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5-0 Al Shabab on 17 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al Shabab have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Al Shabab 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%, Al Shabab 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 33% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Al Shabab in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 52% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 33% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 67% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.