Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hazm are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Shabab: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 63% and Al-Hazm 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 45% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.91 xG and Al-Hazm 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.154 / defence 1.365 | Al-Hazm attack 1.010 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Data: 38 Al Shabab games / 38 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al Shabab dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Hazm are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 90% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG Al Shabab 1.91 / Al-Hazm 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.154 / def 1.365 | Al-Hazm attack 1.010 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Al-Hazm xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 25 February 2027 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 37% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Record (7 meetings): Al Shabab 6W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.18
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.84
1.94
Al-Hazm xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
14%
6.95
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.94 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 8W 14D 16L from 38 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.00 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 6W 5D 8L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 7D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 8W 14D 16L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 79%, Al-Hazm at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al Shabab and 58% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Al Shabab's games and 63% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al Shabab's matches and 58% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.