Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (87%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Riyadh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Riyadh to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Riyadh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Al Riyadh, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Riyadh trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% versus Al Riyadh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Al Riyadh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.82 xG and Al Riyadh 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.911 / defence 0.754 | Al Riyadh attack 0.913 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.344. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.911 — their λ of 3.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 53 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 87% | Draw 8% | Al Riyadh 5%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.15 | Draw 12.50 | Al Riyadh 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (87%) — a 82pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 4.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 87% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.74 combined xG gives a 85% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Riyadh 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 87% | Draw 8% | Al Riyadh 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.82 / Al Riyadh 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.911 / def 0.754 | Al Riyadh attack 0.913 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.82
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Riyadh xG
59%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 87% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 5% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.91) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 3.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 4-0 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
87%
1.15
8%
12.48
5%
21.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
7.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.82
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
4.74
0.93
Al Riyadh xG
1.15
87%
Home win
12.48
8%
Draw
21.05
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
2%
45.51
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 3.82 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.93 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 4.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 46W 5D 2L from 53 games, a 2.70 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 22L across 53 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 25W 1D 0L from 26 games — 2.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 3.02 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.06 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 5D 2L in their last 53 games (2.70 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.92 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al Riyadh 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 65% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 62% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 65% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.82 xG and Al Riyadh 0.93 xG, a combined 4.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.91 / defence 0.75 against Al Riyadh attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 87% | Draw 8% | Al Riyadh 5%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 87%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.