Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 2.10 PPG versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.570 / defence 0.864 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.570 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 33 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.570 / def 0.864 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.882 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 63% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.13
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
2%
52.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.09 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 22W 6D 5L from 33 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 7L across 33 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.18 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 12W 2D 2L from 16 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.82 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.61 scored and 0.88 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 6D 5L in their last 33 games (2.18 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 21W 5D 7L in their last 33 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 50% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.57 / defence 0.86 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 18%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.18 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.