Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (2.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Fayha in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% versus Al-Fayha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72% | Al-Fayha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 xG and Al-Fayha 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.372 / defence 0.982 | Al-Fayha attack 0.891 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.254. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fayha 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 / Al-Fayha 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.372 / def 0.982 | Al-Fayha attack 0.891 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Fayha xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.37x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.89x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.47
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.99
1.10
Al-Fayha xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
3%
30.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.10 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 40 games, going 37W 3D 0L for 2.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.23 PPG from 40 outings (12W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.62 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 18W 1D 0L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.98 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.23 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 37W 3D 0L in their last 40 games (2.85 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 13D 15L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.89 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 74% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 68% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 74% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 68% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 xG and Al-Fayha 1.10 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.98 against Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%, Al-Fayha 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.85 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.