Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Fateh at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Al-Fateh, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 4–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% and Al-Fateh 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al-Fateh 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.43 xG and Al-Fateh 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.218 / defence 0.821 | Al-Fateh attack 0.861 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.528. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 42 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Fateh 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.43 / Al-Fateh 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.218 / def 0.821 | Al-Fateh attack 0.861 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Fateh xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:40 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 66% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.43. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
66%
1.51
20%
5.12
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.08
Al-Fateh xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
9%
11.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
1%
79.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.08 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.26 PPG on a 29W 8D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 12W 8D 22L from 42 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.43 PPG from 21 outings (16W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.33 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 69%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 29W 8D 5L in their last 42 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 12W 8D 22L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.43 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 57% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 57% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.43 xG and Al-Fateh 1.08 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.82 against Al-Fateh attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al-Fateh 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.