Al-Hazm 0-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al Okhdood.

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Analysis

Al Okhdood make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Thursday 2 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Hazm have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Hazm's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.

Al Okhdood's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Okhdood away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al-Hazm against 0.70 for Al Okhdood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al Okhdood edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Al-Hazm 1–2 Al Okhdood — a Al Okhdood win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al Okhdood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 55% | Al Okhdood 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.47 xG and Al Okhdood 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / defence 1.451 | Al Okhdood attack 0.639 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.411. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.47. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hazm's projected output up. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.639 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.451 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 29 games and Al Okhdood's last 29.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.46 | Draw 3.84 | Al Okhdood 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 40% (last 10 away games).

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