Al Taawon 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 3 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.30 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (3.00 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al Taawon's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 64% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 52% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.120 / defence 0.927 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.695 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.411. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.695 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Al Taawon games / 58 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Taawon 1.46 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.120 / def 0.927 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.695 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Taawon 0 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.12) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.70x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
24%
4.08
21%
4.74
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.67
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.08
24%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
11%
9.18
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
3%
37.47
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Taawon and 2.22 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 29W 16D 13L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 43W 10D 5L from 58 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 20W 5D 3L from 28 away games — 2.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.41 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 43W 10D 5L in their last 58 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.64 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 71%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Taawon) and 54% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Taawon's games and 39% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al Taawon's matches and 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taawon 0-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.70 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.78. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.