Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al-Hazm welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ettifaq are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Hazm, 3 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al-Ettifaq 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 57% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.08 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.951 / defence 1.113 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.001 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.432. Data: 45 Al-Hazm games / 44 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 23% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ettifaq 2.13. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 23% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Hazm 1.08 / Al-Ettifaq 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.951 / def 1.113 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.001 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Ettifaq xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 May 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 23% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.95) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
23%
4.29
30%
3.34
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.68
1.60
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
21.16
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.60 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 12D 19L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.16 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 3D 8L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.48 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 67%, Al-Ettifaq 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Hazm) and 52% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Hazm's games and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Hazm's matches and 52% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.