Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Thursday 18 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.70 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Taawon in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, Al Taawon have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al-Fayha's 1, with 5 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Taawon 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al Taawon 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.65 xG and Al Taawon 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.067 / defence 1.210 | Al Taawon attack 1.115 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Data: 39 Al-Fayha games / 39 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Fayha 1.65 / Al Taawon 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.067 / def 1.210 | Al Taawon attack 1.115 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Al Taawon xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 18 February 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 5 | Al Taawon 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (1.07) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.11x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.78
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.42
1.77
Al Taawon xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
6%
17.02
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.77 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 11W 10D 18L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 13L across 39 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.44 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 8W 3D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.59 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.42 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 58%, Al Taawon 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Fayha) and 63% (Al Taawon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Fayha's games and 68% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Fayha's matches and 63% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.