Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 31 January 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.20 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Al Taawon have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al-Fayha's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.
It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 59% versus Al Taawon 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Taawon 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al Taawon 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / defence 0.939 | Al Taawon attack 0.863 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.376. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Al-Fayha games / 51 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Taawon 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Fayha 0.84 / Al Taawon 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / def 0.939 | Al Taawon attack 0.863 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Taawon xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kicked off at 13:45 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 27% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 3 | Al Taawon 3W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.74) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.86x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
27%
3.68
31%
3.24
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.95
1.11
Al Taawon xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.11 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 14W 17D 20L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 13L across 51 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 6W 9D 10L from 25 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 9W 9D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.35 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 14W 17D 20L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 22W 16D 13L in their last 51 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.08 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al Taawon 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fayha) and 32% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Taawon in 36%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Taawon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 44% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 32% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al-Fayha and Al Taawon drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al Taawon 1.11 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Taawon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.74 / defence 0.94 against Al Taawon attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 53%, Al Taawon 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.