Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al Fateh Club Stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 2D 5L at Al Fateh Club Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 2L across 9 road games this term (2.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 9 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.11 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2.20 PPG clear of Al-Fateh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.70 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fateh lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 65% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.903 / defence 1.159 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.339. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Al-Fateh games / 17 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 90% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fateh 0.99 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.903 / def 1.159 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.097 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 22% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.10x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
22%
4.58
24%
4.17
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.69
1.70
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
4.58
22%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
4%
25.11
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.70 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 2W 3D 12L from 17 games, a 0.53 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 1D 4L across 17 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 6W 1D 2L across 9 trips, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.53 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 29%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 12L in their last 17 games (0.53 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 12W 1D 4L in their last 17 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 0.89 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3-0 on 23 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 89%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Fateh and 56% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Al-Fateh's games and 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Fateh's matches and 56% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC finished level at 1-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.