Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 0.70 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Al Khaleej Saihat have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fateh and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al Khaleej Saihat 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 56% | Al Khaleej Saihat 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.66 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.927 / defence 1.065 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.991 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.402. Data: 61 Al-Fateh games / 61 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Fateh 1.66 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.927 / def 1.065 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.991 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:45 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh 1 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 42% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fateh 5W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.93) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.24
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.14
1.48
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.48 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 18W 13D 30L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 18W 14D 29L from 61 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.10 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (12W 6D 13L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 9W 8D 14L from 31 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.41 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 18W 13D 30L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 14D 29L in their last 61 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.35 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fateh have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 6, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 77%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Fateh and 71% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Al-Fateh's games and 77% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Fateh's matches and 71% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.66 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.48 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 56%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.10 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.