Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.90 (Al-Ittihad FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Al-Fateh.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 2–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al-Ittihad FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 59% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.77 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.214 / defence 1.261 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.344 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.427. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 2.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Al-Fateh games / 51 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.57 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.92. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 2.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 76% | xG Al-Fateh 1.77 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.214 / def 1.261 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.344 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
2.42
Al-Ittihad FC xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 29 January 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fateh 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 6W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.21) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 2.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
28%
3.61
20%
4.88
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
4.19
2.42
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.61
28%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.20
Clean Sheet
9%
11.22
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
2%
40.52
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 2.42 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 9D 25L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 35W 8D 8L from 51 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (11W 3D 11L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 7D 4L from 25 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 17W 9D 25L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 35W 8D 8L in their last 51 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 80%, Al-Ittihad FC at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Fateh and 60% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Fateh's games and 72% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Fateh's matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 2-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.77 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.42 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.21 / defence 1.26 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 59%, Al-Ittihad FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.