Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Fayha, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fateh.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Fayha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 59% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 48% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.09 xG and Al-Fayha 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.734 / defence 1.338 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Al-Fateh games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fayha 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Fayha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Fateh 1.09 / Al-Fayha 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.734 / def 1.338 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Fayha xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 26% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 5 | Al-Fayha 5W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
26%
3.87
31%
3.21
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.54
1.45
Al-Fayha xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.57
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.45 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 10W 13D 23L from 46 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 21L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 0.93 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 5D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.24 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 23L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.13 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
5
Draws
5
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 61%, Al-Fayha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Fateh) and 61% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Fateh's games and 52% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Fateh's matches and 61% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.