Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al-Faisaly FC at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 18 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 3D 4L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Faisaly FC's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al-Faisaly FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 33% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.38 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.821 / defence 0.920 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Fateh games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 45% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.55. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Faisaly FC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 45% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Fateh 1.38 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.821 / def 0.920 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al-Faisaly FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 18 February 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 45% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
45%
2.24
33%
3.00
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.29
0.92
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.92 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 0.50 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Fateh's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 33%, Al-Faisaly FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Fateh) and 67% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.