Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 35%, yet in-form Al-Faisaly FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to to face Al-Faisaly FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Monday 24 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Faisaly FC's favour (1.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Al Taawon in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Faisaly FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 67% versus Al Taawon 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 58% | Al Taawon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.35 xG and Al Taawon 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.220 | Al Taawon attack 0.760 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al-Faisaly FC games / 46 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 34% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Faisaly FC (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 34% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.35 / Al Taawon 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / def 1.220 | Al Taawon attack 0.760 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al Taawon xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.78) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.76x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.27
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.37
Al Taawon xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.37 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 2W 4D 6L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 0W 5D 7L from 12 games, 0.42 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Faisaly FC are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 0.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 0W 5D 7L in their last 12 (0.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2022, when Al Taawon 2-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Faisaly FC, 67% for Al Taawon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 67% (Al Taawon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 67% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 67% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.