Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Faisaly FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 67% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 58% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.64 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.220 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.701 / defence 0.548. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.548 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.701 — the away xG of 3.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Al-Faisaly FC games / 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 4% | Draw 12% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 84%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 25.00 | Draw 8.33 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.19. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (84%) — a 80pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%.

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