Al-Ettifaq 0-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 38%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
EGO Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at EGO Stadium this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at EGO Stadium this season.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ettifaq. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al-Fayha (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 50% versus Al-Fayha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 45% | Al-Fayha 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fayha 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.869 / defence 1.194 | Al-Fayha attack 0.821 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.304. Data: 58 Al-Ettifaq games / 58 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.23 / Al-Fayha 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.869 / def 1.194 | Al-Fayha attack 0.821 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 35% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.82x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.71
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.51
1.28
Al-Fayha xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.28 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 22W 17D 19L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 15W 21D 22L from 58 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.14 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 22W 17D 19L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 15W 21D 22L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Fayha 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 64% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Fayha in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 64% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 64% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Ettifaq 0-2 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fayha 1.28 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Al-Fayha attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 38%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 45%, Al-Fayha 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.43 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.