Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC meet at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 0.40 PPG across 5 Pro League outings this season: 0W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ettifaq's 1.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Faisaly FC's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Faisaly FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 40% versus Al-Faisaly FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Faisaly FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 2.30 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.141 / defence 1.349 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.961 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.302. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Al-Ettifaq games / 5 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Draw 23% | Al-Faisaly FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Faisaly FC 3.70. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Faisaly FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Sep 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Draw 23% | Al-Faisaly FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Al-Ettifaq 2.30 / Al-Faisaly FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.141 / def 1.349 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.961 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Al-Faisaly FC xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 15:30 on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 50% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.96x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.28
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.99
1.69
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.01
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
10%
10.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
3%
37.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.69 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 0D 2L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Faisaly FC sit at 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 40%, Al-Faisaly FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Ettifaq) and 40% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 60% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 40% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC finished level at 0-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 2.30 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.69 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Al-Faisaly FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.14 / defence 1.35 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.49, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 50% | Draw 23% | Al-Faisaly FC 27%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 60%, Al-Faisaly FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Faisaly FC managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.