Al-Ettifaq 3-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ettifaq face Al Baten.

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Analysis

Al Baten make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Friday 9 September 2022 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Ettifaq at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Baten's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al Baten away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.10 for Al Baten. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 0 for Al Baten and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2022, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–0 Al Baten — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Al Baten — key trading statistics (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 53% versus Al Baten 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 53% | Al Baten 47%). Note also that Al Baten surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al-Ettifaq recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG and Al Baten 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.031 / defence 1.212 | Al Baten attack 0.859 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.140. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Baten's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 32 games and Al Baten's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Draw 27% | Al Baten 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.49 | Draw 3.74 | Al Baten 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Baten 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Al-Ettifaq 32 games, Al Baten 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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