Al Baten 0-5 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Baten host Al-Fateh at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 16:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Baten have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Al Baten have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Baten at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Baten, 1 for Al-Fateh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with Al Baten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Baten trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Al-Fateh trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 42% versus Al-Fateh 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 45% | Al-Fateh 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.26 xG and Al-Fateh 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 1.105 / defence 1.000 | Al-Fateh attack 1.009 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.253. Data: 31 Al Baten games / 31 Al-Fateh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Baten 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Al Baten 60% | Al-Fateh 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Baten 1.26 / Al-Fateh 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 1.105 / def 1.000 | Al-Fateh attack 1.009 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al-Fateh xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:55 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Al Baten 0 - 5 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): Al Baten 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fateh in?
Al Baten (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 1.10x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
36%
2.75
27%
3.72
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.52
1.26
Al-Fateh xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.26 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Baten's recent record stands at 8W 9D 14L from 31 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 14L across 31 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Baten on 1.06 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Baten have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Baten are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.45 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 8W 9D 14L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Baten's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.53 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Baten and Al-Fateh runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fateh go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Baten's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
0
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 47%, Al-Fateh 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Baten) and 33% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 33%; Al Baten have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fateh in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al Baten's recent matches and 40% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Baten's recent games and 33% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Baten 0-5 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.26 xG and Al-Fateh 1.26 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Baten fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.26 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Al-Fateh attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 37%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 45%, Al-Fateh 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 1.06 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Baten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.