Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Diriyah host Al-Hazm at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Diriyah — All Games: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Diriyah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Diriyah at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.67 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.67 PPG (Al Diriyah) versus 1.20 (Al-Hazm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Diriyah, 0 for Al-Hazm and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Al Diriyah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Diriyah trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hazm trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Diriyah 33% versus Al-Hazm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Hazm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 0.89 xG and Al-Hazm 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.613 / defence 1.060 | Al-Hazm attack 0.922 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al Diriyah's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al Diriyah games / 40 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 23% | Draw 35% | Al-Hazm 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Hazm 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Hazm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Diriyah 23% | Draw 35% | Al-Hazm 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Diriyah 0.89 / Al-Hazm 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al Diriyah attack 0.613 / def 1.060 | Al-Hazm attack 0.922 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al Diriyah xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al-Hazm xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Diriyah a 23% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al Diriyah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm in?
Al Diriyah (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Diriyah's attack at 0.61x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Diriyah's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
23%
4.32
35%
2.86
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al Diriyah xG
Total xG
2.14
1.26
Al-Hazm xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 1.26 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Al Diriyah have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Diriyah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Diriyah on 1.67 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Diriyah have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Diriyah are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Diriyah
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Diriyah have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Diriyah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hazm's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Diriyah at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Diriyah or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Diriyah have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al Diriyah
0
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm?
From 1 meetings on record, Al Diriyah have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-1 Al Diriyah.
Who has won more matches between Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm?
Al Diriyah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Diriyah see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Diriyah 33%, Al-Hazm 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al Diriyah and 67% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%; Al Diriyah have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Diriyah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Diriyah play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Diriyah's recent matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Diriyah's recent games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Diriyah have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.