Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Al Diriyah take on Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Al Diriyah welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Diriyah — All Games: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Diriyah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Diriyah's home record at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Pro League appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.67 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al Diriyah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.97 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.67 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Diriyah, 0 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Al Diriyah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Diriyah trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Fateh 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Fateh 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 0.85 xG and Al-Fateh 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.613 / defence 1.060 | Al-Fateh attack 0.715 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al Diriyah's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al Diriyah games / 40 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 27% | Draw 39% | Al-Fateh 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | Al-Fateh 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Diriyah 27% | Draw 39% | Al-Fateh 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Diriyah 0.85 / Al-Fateh 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Diriyah attack 0.613 / def 1.060 | Al-Fateh attack 0.715 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Al Diriyah xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Fateh xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 March 2027 at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Diriyah a 27% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Al Diriyah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh in?
Al Diriyah (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Diriyah's attack at 0.61x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Diriyah's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.67
39%
2.59
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Al Diriyah xG
Total xG
1.82
0.97
Al-Fateh xG
3.67
27%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.7 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 0.97 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Al Diriyah have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Diriyah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Diriyah are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Diriyah have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Diriyah are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 0.33 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Diriyah
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Diriyah have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Diriyah at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Diriyah at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Diriyah or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Diriyah have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al Diriyah
0
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh?
From 1 meetings on record, Al Diriyah have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Diriyah.
Who has won more matches between Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh?
Al Diriyah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Diriyah see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Diriyah 33% BTTS, Al-Fateh 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al Diriyah and 33% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%; Al Diriyah have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Fateh in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Diriyah home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Diriyah play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Diriyah's recent matches and 33% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Diriyah vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Diriyah's recent games and 33% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Diriyah and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Diriyah have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.