Al Baten 0-5 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Baten face Al-Fateh.

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Match Analysis

Al Baten host Al-Fateh at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 17:55 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Baten have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Al Baten have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Baten at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Baten, 1 for Al-Fateh and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Feb 2022, ended Al Baten 3–2 Al-Fateh — a Al Baten win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Baten trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Al-Fateh trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 42% versus Al-Fateh 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 45% | Al-Fateh 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.26 xG and Al-Fateh 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 1.105 / defence 1.000 | Al-Fateh attack 1.009 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.253. Data: built from Al Baten's last 31 games and Al-Fateh's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al Baten 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.75 | Draw 3.72 | Al-Fateh 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Baten 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Al Baten 31 games, Al-Fateh 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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