Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawon to Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 May 2025 at 17:25 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 2.00 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Al Taawon, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 4–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al Taawon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al Taawon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 xG and Al Taawon 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.503 / defence 0.884 | Al Taawon attack 0.836 / defence 0.698. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.431. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.698 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 63 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 4.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al Taawon 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 May 2025, 17:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 / Al Taawon 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.503 / def 0.884 | Al Taawon attack 0.836 / def 0.698 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Taawon xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:25 on Wednesday 7 May 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.50x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.86
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.68
1.06
Al Taawon xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
20.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.06 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 37W 12D 14L from 63 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 27W 19D 17L across 63 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.95 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 20W 7D 4L from 31 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 12W 11D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.35 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Al Taawon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 37W 12D 14L in their last 63 games (1.95 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.16 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, Al Taawon 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 29% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al Taawon in 39%; Al Taawon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 42% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 29% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 2-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.62 xG and Al Taawon 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.50 / defence 0.88 against Al Taawon attack 0.84 / defence 0.70, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 24%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taawon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.95 PPG, Al Taawon 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.