Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al Shabab travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Al-Ahli Jeddah) versus 1.70 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al Shabab and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al Shabab trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% versus Al Shabab 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Al Shabab 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 xG and Al Shabab 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.042 / defence 0.780 | Al Shabab attack 0.958 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.394. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 47 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Al Shabab 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Shabab 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 / Al Shabab 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.042 / def 0.780 | Al Shabab attack 0.958 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al Shabab xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.04) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.31
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.07
1.04
Al Shabab xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.04 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 26W 10D 11L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 19W 10D 18L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.17 PPG from 23 outings (15W 5D 3L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 8W 6D 9L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.34 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Al Shabab in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 26W 10D 11L in their last 47 games (1.87 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.17 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Shabab have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 44%, Al Shabab 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 35% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Al Shabab in 44%; Al Shabab in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 30% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 35% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Shabab 3-2 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 xG and Al Shabab 1.04 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.04 / defence 0.78 against Al Shabab attack 0.96 / defence 0.72, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 35%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%, Al Shabab 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.