Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.08 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.769 / defence 0.750 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.219 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.505. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.219, which lifts their away xG to 1.38. Al-Ahli Jeddah have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Al-Ittihad FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 25 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 55.

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.52 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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