Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 May 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 2D 1L at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% versus Al-Ettifaq 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al-Ettifaq 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.542 / defence 0.816 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.991 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.418. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.542 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 66 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ettifaq 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 / Al-Ettifaq 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.542 / def 0.816 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.991 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al-Ettifaq xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 61% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.54) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
61%
1.65
20%
4.98
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.32
1.15
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
2%
45.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.15 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 39W 12D 15L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 24W 20D 22L from 66 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.21 PPG from 33 outings (22W 7D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 11D 9L from 33 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.24 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 39W 12D 15L in their last 66 games (1.95 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 24W 20D 22L in their last 66 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, Al-Ettifaq 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 39% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%; Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 39% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-3 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.15 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.54 / defence 0.82 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 19%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.