Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Abha take on Al-Faisaly FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Faisaly FC at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 outings — a 0.17 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Pro League appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 0W 3D 3L from 6 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.17 PPG (Abha) versus 0.50 (Al-Faisaly FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Abha register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Abha, 1 for Al-Faisaly FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 67% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 67% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.18 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.704 / defence 1.144 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Abha's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Abha games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Faisaly FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Faisaly FC 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 67% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Faisaly FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Abha 1.18 / Al-Faisaly FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.704 / def 1.144 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Faisaly FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 15:25 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 34% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Abha and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.70x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
34%
2.92
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Abha xG
Total xG
2.32
1.14
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Abha and 1.14 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Abha have picked up 0.17 PPG on a 0W 1D 5L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 0.17 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Abha have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Abha's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Abha
1
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Abha have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Abha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 67%, Al-Faisaly FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Abha) and 67% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; Abha have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Abha's games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Abha's recent games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.