Zenit 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zenit face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Zenit welcome CSKA Moscow to Saint-Petersburg Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Zenit have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Zenit carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Zenit, 1 for CSKA Moscow and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zenit in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 49% versus CSKA Moscow 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 53% | CSKA Moscow 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.44 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 0.848 / defence 0.791 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.223 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.211. CSKA Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Zenit's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. CSKA Moscow have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Zenit's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Zenit games / 57 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 43% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 31%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | CSKA Moscow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 40% | CSKA Moscow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 43% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Zenit 1.44 / CSKA Moscow 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 0.848 / def 0.791 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.223 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Zenit (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.17
CSKA Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Zenit 0 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 43% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zenit and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): Zenit 3W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 1W.
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in?
Zenit (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zenit's attack rating (0.85) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.84
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
CSKA Moscow xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zenit and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Zenit and 1.17 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zenit's recent record stands at 36W 13D 8L from 57 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 26W 19D 12L across 57 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over CSKA Moscow heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 21W 3D 4L from 28 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 8W 11D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zenit are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.81 scored and 1.14 conceded. CSKA Moscow's attacking output running into Zenit's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow in 63%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 36W 13D 8L in their last 57 games (2.12 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 26W 19D 12L in their last 57 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Zenit's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.36 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Zenit or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zenit's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zenit
3
Draws
2
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 5, CSKA Moscow have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 43%, CSKA Moscow 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Zenit and 57% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Zenit's recent matches and 64% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Zenit's matches and 57% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Zenit and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Zenit 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Zenit 0-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.44 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zenit fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 0.85 / defence 0.79 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.22 / defence 1.24, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 43% | Draw 26% | CSKA Moscow 31%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 53%, CSKA Moscow 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.70. Form was overturned, with CSKA Moscow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.