Zenit 2-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Zenit welcome Akhmat to Saint-Petersburg Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zenit have posted 7W 1D 2L at Saint-Petersburg Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Zenit have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Zenit have won 2, Akhmat 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Akhmat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Akhmat trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 50% versus Akhmat 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 60% | Akhmat 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.86 xG and Akhmat 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.340 / defence 1.028 | Akhmat attack 0.806 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.072. Zenit carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Zenit games / 42 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 60% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 17%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Akhmat 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zenit 60% | Akhmat 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 60% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Zenit 1.86 / Akhmat 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.340 / def 1.028 | Akhmat attack 0.806 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Zenit (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Akhmat xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Akhmat kick off?
Zenit vs Akhmat kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Zenit 2 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Zenit vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Akhmat part of?
Zenit vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 60% chance of winning, Akhmat a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zenit and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
Record (4 meetings): Zenit 2W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Akhmat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.34) and Akhmat's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.32
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.75
0.89
Akhmat xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
37.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Zenit and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Zenit and 0.89 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 28W 9D 5L from 42 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 16L across 42 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 16W 1D 3L from 20 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 10W 3D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.50 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat in 62%.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 28W 9D 5L in their last 42 games (2.21 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 18W 8D 16L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Akhmat away?
Zenit's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.45 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Zenit or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Akhmat in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and Akhmat runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Zenit
1
Draws
2
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 7, Akhmat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Akhmat?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 50%, Akhmat 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Zenit and 65% for Akhmat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zenit's games and 60% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Zenit's matches and 65% of Akhmat's.
Do Zenit and Akhmat tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Akhmat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 2-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.86 xG and Akhmat 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.34 / defence 1.03 against Akhmat attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 60% | Draw 23% | Akhmat 17%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 60%, Akhmat 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Akhmat's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.