Spartak Moscow 1-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spartak Moscow and Zenit meet at Otkritie Bank Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spartak Moscow's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 5W 3D 2L at Otkritie Bank Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zenit (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zenit's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Spartak Moscow, 1 for Zenit and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Spartak Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spartak Moscow 62% and Zenit 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 49% | Zenit 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.29 xG and Zenit 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.219 / defence 0.825 | Zenit attack 1.086 / defence 0.661. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.335. Zenit's defence strength of 0.661 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Spartak Moscow games / 37 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 37% | Draw 31% | Zenit 32%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Zenit 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spartak Moscow are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 70% | Zenit 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Otkritie Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 37% | Draw 31% | Zenit 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.29 / Zenit 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.219 / def 0.825 | Zenit attack 1.086 / def 0.661 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Zenit xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Zenit kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Zenit kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Zenit?
Spartak Moscow 1 - 2 Zenit.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Otkritie Bank Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Zenit part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 37% chance of winning, Zenit a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Zenit?
Record (2 meetings): Spartak Moscow 0W | Draws 1 | Zenit 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Zenit in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Zenit (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spartak Moscow's attack rating (1.22) and Zenit's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (1.09x) against Spartak Moscow's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.20
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.49
1.20
Zenit xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.20 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 15W 9D 13L from 37 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 3L across 37 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spartak Moscow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spartak Moscow have managed 8W 5D 4L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 6W 9D 2L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.24 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Zenit in 62%.
Defensively: Zenit in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Zenit
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Zenit in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 games (1.46 PPG), while Zenit have gone 24W 10D 3L in their last 37 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Zenit away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.71 PPG; Zenit away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Zenit in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won 7-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spartak Moscow have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Spartak Moscow
4
Draws
5
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 1, Zenit have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Zenit see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 71%, Zenit 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Spartak Moscow) and 29% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Spartak Moscow's games and 59% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 29% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Zenit tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Zenit in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zenit defy the odds to beat Spartak Moscow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Spartak Moscow 1-2 at Otkritie Bank Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.29 xG and Zenit 1.20 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.22 / defence 0.82 against Zenit attack 1.09 / defence 0.66, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 37% | Draw 31% | Zenit 32%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Zenit win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 49%, Zenit 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.