Lokomotiv 1-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lokomotiv at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov meet at RZD Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Lokomotiv (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lokomotiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lokomotiv's home record at RZD Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lokomotiv are significantly better at RZD Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lokomotiv, 0 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Lokomotiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lokomotiv — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokomotiv 68% versus Krylia Sovetov 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 59% | Krylia Sovetov 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 1.75 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 1.009 / defence 1.065 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.085 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.239. Data: 34 Lokomotiv games / 34 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 43% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 30%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Krylia Sovetov 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lokomotiv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lokomotiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Lokomotiv 60% | Krylia Sovetov 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: RZD Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokomotiv 43% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Lokomotiv 1.75 / Krylia Sovetov 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lokomotiv attack 1.009 / def 1.065 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.085 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Lokomotiv xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Krylia Sovetov xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at RZD Arena.
What was the final score in Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Lokomotiv 1 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at RZD Arena.
What competition is Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Lokomotiv a 43% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): Lokomotiv 2W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov in?
Lokomotiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lokomotiv's attack at 1.01x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.08x) against Lokomotiv's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.68
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Lokomotiv xG
Total xG
3.18
1.43
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
5%
19.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 1.43 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lokomotiv's recent record stands at 13W 11D 10L from 34 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lokomotiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 15L across 34 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Lokomotiv against 1.32 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lokomotiv have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 6W 2D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokomotiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lokomotiv are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokomotiv
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Lokomotiv have gone 13W 11D 10L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 6D 15L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokomotiv at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Lokomotiv's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokomotiv at home: 1.82 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 5-1 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokomotiv have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lokomotiv
5
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Lokomotiv have won 3, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov?
Lokomotiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokomotiv 71%, Krylia Sovetov 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lokomotiv) and 53% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokomotiv home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokomotiv play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lokomotiv's games and 53% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lokomotiv's matches and 53% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Lokomotiv have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.75 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.43 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 43% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 30%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 59%, Krylia Sovetov 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokomotiv's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokomotiv 1.47 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.