Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face Zenit.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Krylia Sovetov welcome Zenit to Samara Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 3D 4L at Samara Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.40 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Zenit have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Krylia Sovetov.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 3–2 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zenit have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zenit in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 57% versus Zenit 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 48% | Zenit 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.98 xG and Zenit 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.958 / defence 1.264 | Zenit attack 1.130 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.127. Zenit's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Krylia Sovetov games / 44 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 21% | Draw 28% | Zenit 50%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Zenit 2.00. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Zenit 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 21% | Draw 28% | Zenit 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.98 / Zenit 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.958 / def 1.264 | Zenit attack 1.130 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Zenit (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Zenit xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Zenit.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 21% chance of winning, Zenit a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Record (8 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 2 | Zenit 5W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Zenit (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.96) and Zenit's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
21%
4.67
28%
3.54
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.59
1.61
Zenit xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
4%
23.35
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.61 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 11W 11D 22L from 44 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 5L across 44 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 7W 4D 10L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 11W 7D 3L across 21 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.95 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Zenit have gone 28W 11D 5L in their last 44 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.19 PPG; Zenit away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Zenit in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 52%, Zenit 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Krylia Sovetov) and 38% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 52%; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 38% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 38% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Zenit tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zenit in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Krylia Sovetov and Zenit drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.98 xG and Zenit 1.61 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Zenit attack 1.13 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 21% | Draw 28% | Zenit 50%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 48%, Zenit 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.