Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Samara Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samara Arena. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Akhmat are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 3W, Akhmat 4W, 1D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Akhmat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 51% versus Akhmat 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 47% | Akhmat 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.35 xG and Akhmat 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.890 / defence 0.879 | Akhmat attack 1.009 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.049. Data: 53 Krylia Sovetov games / 53 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 26%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Akhmat 3.85. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Akhmat (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Akhmat 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.35 / Akhmat 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.890 / def 0.879 | Akhmat attack 1.009 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Akhmat xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 46% chance of winning, Akhmat a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Record (8 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 3W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 4W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Akhmat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (1.01x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.28
0.93
Akhmat xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.93 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 13W 13D 27L from 53 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 23L across 53 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.06 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 6D 10L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 2W 8D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.06 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 13W 13D 27L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 13W 17D 23L in their last 53 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akhmat away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.32 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
4
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Akhmat have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Akhmat 3-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 48%, Akhmat 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Krylia Sovetov) and 52% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 28% of games; Akhmat in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 60% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 52% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat finished level at 2-2 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.35 xG and Akhmat 0.93 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Akhmat outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Akhmat attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 46% | Draw 28% | Akhmat 26%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 47%, Akhmat 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.98 PPG, Akhmat 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.