Fakel 1-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Fakel welcome Zenit to Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 games at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zenit's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Fakel's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Fakel trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Zenit trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 82% versus Zenit 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 64% | Zenit 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.91 xG and Zenit 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.894 / defence 1.290 | Zenit attack 1.215 / defence 0.616. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.288. Zenit's defence strength of 0.616 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Fakel games / 41 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 15% | Draw 23% | Zenit 62%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | Zenit 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fakel 60% | Zenit 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 15% | Draw 23% | Zenit 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Fakel 0.91 / Zenit 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.894 / def 1.290 | Zenit attack 1.215 / def 0.616 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Zenit (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Zenit xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Zenit kick off?
Fakel vs Zenit kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Zenit?
Fakel 1 - 1 Zenit.
Where is Fakel vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Zenit part of?
Fakel vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 15% chance of winning, Zenit a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fakel and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Zenit?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fakel and Zenit in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Zenit (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.89) and Zenit's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
15%
6.77
23%
4.28
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.93
2.02
Zenit xG
6.77
15%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
13%
7.53
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
2%
50.95
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fakel and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Fakel and 2.02 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Zenit?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 6D 4L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.64 PPG from 11 outings (9W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.82 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fakel's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 2.20 points per game from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L). That's a step down from their 2.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.91 scored and 0.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zenit in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Zenit in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 1W 6D 4L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Zenit have gone 9W 2D 0L in their last 11 (2.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.20 PPG; Zenit away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Fakel or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Zenit in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Zenit have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Fakel's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
4
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Zenit?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Zenit have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Fakel 0-2 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 60%, Zenit 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fakel) and 40% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Zenit in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Fakel's recent matches and 40% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Fakel's recent games and 40% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Zenit tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zenit in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 12, as Fakel and Zenit drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.91 xG and Zenit 2.02 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Zenit landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Zenit attack 1.22 / defence 0.62, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 15% | Draw 23% | Zenit 62%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 64%, Zenit 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.64 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.