Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Anzhi Arena to face Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dinamo Makhachkala's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dinamo Makhachkala's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Anzhi Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 27% | CSKA Moscow 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 0% | CSKA Moscow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.70 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.650 / defence 0.982 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.183 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.232. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 41 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 16% | Draw 32% | CSKA Moscow 52%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 6.25 | Draw 3.12 | CSKA Moscow 1.92. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 25% | CSKA Moscow 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 16% | Draw 32% | CSKA Moscow 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.70 / CSKA Moscow 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.650 / def 0.982 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.183 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.43
CSKA Moscow xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 16% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 52% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.65x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.18x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
16%
6.23
32%
3.17
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.13
1.43
CSKA Moscow xG
6.23
16%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
4%
26.04
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 17.0 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.43 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dinamo Makhachkala come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 5D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, CSKA Moscow sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dinamo Makhachkala's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, CSKA Moscow have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.45 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.91 scored and 0.64 conceded. CSKA Moscow's attacking output running into Dinamo Makhachkala's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dinamo Makhachkala have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; CSKA Moscow in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.00 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: CSKA Moscow have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
From 4 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when CSKA Moscow 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 25%, CSKA Moscow 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 50% for CSKA Moscow.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 75% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.70 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.43 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.65 / defence 0.98 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 16% | Draw 32% | CSKA Moscow 52%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, CSKA Moscow 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.