Baltika 0-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostec Arena plays host to Baltika versus Zenit in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Baltika's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Baltika have posted 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Baltika are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Zenit (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zenit have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Zenit are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Baltika goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 46% versus Zenit 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 46% | Zenit 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.04 xG and Zenit 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.884 / defence 1.065 | Zenit attack 1.364 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.060. Zenit bring a tight defence (rating 0.778, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Baltika's projected output down. Zenit have an above-average attack rating of 1.364, which lifts their away xG to 1.54. Data: built from Baltika's last 13 games and Zenit's last 43.
Result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 26% | Zenit 49%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.90 | Draw 3.92 | Zenit 2.05. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 50% (last 6 home games) | Zenit 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 26% | Zenit 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Baltika 1.04 / Zenit 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.884 / def 1.065 | Zenit attack 1.364 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Zenit (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Zenit xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Zenit FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Zenit kick off?
Baltika vs Zenit kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Zenit?
Baltika 0 - 2 Zenit.
Where is Baltika vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Zenit part of?
Baltika vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 26% chance of winning, Zenit a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Baltika and Zenit will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (1.36x) against Baltika's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 13 games and Zenit's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
26%
3.90
26%
3.92
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.58
1.54
Zenit xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
18.17
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Baltika and 1.54 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baltika come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 2D 8L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Baltika — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Baltika's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.83 points per game from their last 6 away games (3W 2D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 62%.
Defensively: Zenit in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Zenit
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Zenit in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Zenit have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Zenit away?
Baltika's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.83 PPG; Zenit away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Baltika or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Zenit in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Zenit have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Baltika
1
Draws
4
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Zenit?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 0, Zenit have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baltika and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: Baltika 2-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 50%, Zenit 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Baltika) and 50% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zenit in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Zenit matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Baltika's games and 67% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baltika and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Baltika's recent matches and 100% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baltika.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Baltika 0-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.04 xG and Zenit 1.54 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baltika fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Zenit attack 1.36 / defence 0.78, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 26% | Draw 26% | Zenit 49%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 46%, Zenit 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.