Akhmat 0-0 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 37%, yet in-form Zenit provide a compelling counter-argument — this Akhmat vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Zenit at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akhmat's home record at Akhmat Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zenit have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zenit are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Akhmat have won 0, Zenit 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Zenit winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zenit in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Akhmat 58% and Zenit 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 52% | Zenit 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.21 xG and Zenit 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.916 / defence 0.897 | Zenit attack 0.978 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.265. Zenit's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Akhmat games / 33 Zenit games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 37% | Draw 31% | Zenit 32%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Zenit 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zenit (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 60% | Zenit 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 37% | Draw 31% | Zenit 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Akhmat 1.21 / Zenit 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.916 / def 0.897 | Zenit attack 0.978 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Zenit xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Zenit kick off?
Akhmat vs Zenit kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Akhmat 0 - 0 Zenit.
Where is Akhmat vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Zenit part of?
Akhmat vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 37% chance of winning, Zenit a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Akhmat and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Zenit?
Record (2 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 0 | Zenit 2W.
What form are Akhmat and Zenit in?
Akhmat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Zenit (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.92x the league average against Zenit's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.23
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.32
1.11
Zenit xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.11 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Akhmat come into this having played 33 games, going 14W 4D 15L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.18 PPG from 33 outings (21W 9D 3L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Akhmat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Akhmat's home form reads 10W 1D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.62 points per game from 16 outings (6W 8D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Akhmat are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.27 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Early Season
Zenit
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Zenit in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 14W 4D 15L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Zenit have gone 21W 9D 3L in their last 33 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Zenit away?
Akhmat's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.94 PPG; Zenit away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Zenit in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Akhmat
1
Draws
7
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 2, Zenit have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Zenit 2-0 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 56%, Zenit 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Akhmat) and 31% (Zenit).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Akhmat's games and 69% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Akhmat's recent games and 31% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Zenit tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Zenit in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Akhmat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Zenit finished level at 0-0 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.21 xG and Zenit 1.11 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Akhmat fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zenit landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Zenit attack 0.98 / defence 0.77, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 37% | Draw 31% | Zenit 32%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 52%, Zenit 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.