Akhmat 1-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Dynamo travel to Akhmat Arena to take on Akhmat. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 December 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Akhmat — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 1W 4D 5L at Akhmat Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Akhmat, 3 for Dynamo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Dynamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Dynamo in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 50% versus Dynamo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 48% | Dynamo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.11 xG and Dynamo 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.832 / defence 1.345 | Dynamo attack 1.367 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.305. Dynamo have an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Akhmat games / 46 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 14% | Draw 22% | Dynamo 64%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Dynamo 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 70% | Dynamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 14% | Draw 22% | Dynamo 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Akhmat 1.11 / Dynamo 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.832 / def 1.345 | Dynamo attack 1.367 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Dynamo xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Dynamo kick off?
Akhmat vs Dynamo kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 2 December 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Dynamo?
Akhmat 1 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Akhmat vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Dynamo part of?
Akhmat vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 14% chance of winning, Dynamo a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Akhmat and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Dynamo?
Record (7 meetings): Akhmat 3W | Draws 1 | Dynamo 3W.
What form are Akhmat and Dynamo in?
Akhmat (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Dynamo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Akhmat vs Dynamo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.83x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
14%
7.09
22%
4.59
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Akhmat xG
Total xG
3.51
2.40
Dynamo xG
7.09
14%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
9%
11.01
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
1%
78.05
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Akhmat and 2.40 for Dynamo, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Dynamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Akhmat have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 11W 11D 24L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo's form line: 25W 12D 9L from 46 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Akhmat.
Venue Form
On home soil, Akhmat have posted 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
On the road, Dynamo have gone 10W 9D 4L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Akhmat are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.85 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 11W 11D 24L in their last 46 games (0.96 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 25W 12D 9L in their last 46 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 0.96 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Akhmat won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Akhmat
3
Draws
3
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 4, Dynamo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Akhmat 2-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Dynamo?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Akhmat at 61%, Dynamo at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Akhmat) and 61% (Dynamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Akhmat have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Akhmat's games and 70% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Akhmat's matches and 61% of Dynamo's.
Do Akhmat and Dynamo tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and Dynamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Dynamo finished level at 1-1 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.11 xG and Dynamo 2.40 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dynamo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.83 / defence 1.34 against Dynamo attack 1.37 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 14% | Draw 22% | Dynamo 64%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 48%, Dynamo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.