Vizela 1-3 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Braga (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Vizela face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SC Braga travel to Estádio Do Vizela to take on Vizela in Primeira Liga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vizela stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Vizela at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, SC Braga have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, SC Braga have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Braga — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Vizela's games and 70% of SC Braga's (from Vizela's last 10 home games and SC Braga's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
SC Braga have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Vizela.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Vizela 0–4 SC Braga — a SC Braga win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SC Braga have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Vizela in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SC Braga in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 39% versus SC Braga 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 44% | SC Braga 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vizela surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while SC Braga have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.36 xG and SC Braga 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.813 / defence 1.060 | SC Braga attack 1.384 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.262. SC Braga have an above-average attack rating of 1.384, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from Vizela's last 46 games and SC Braga's last 46.
Result probabilities: Vizela 28% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 49%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.54 | Draw 4.41 | SC Braga 2.04. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.85) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Vizela's last 10 home games and SC Braga's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vizela 60% (last 10 home games) | SC Braga 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Friday 8 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 28% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Vizela 1.36 / SC Braga 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.813 / def 1.060 | SC Braga attack 1.384 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.85
SC Braga xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vizela vs SC Braga FAQs
What time does Vizela vs SC Braga kick off?
Vizela vs SC Braga kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Friday 8 December 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs SC Braga?
Vizela 1 - 3 SC Braga.
Where is Vizela vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs SC Braga part of?
Vizela vs SC Braga is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 28% chance of winning, SC Braga a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vizela and SC Braga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vizela vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vizela's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vizela's last 46 games and SC Braga's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
28%
3.54
23%
4.41
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vizela xG
Total xG
3.21
1.85
SC Braga xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
4%
22.56
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vizela vs SC Braga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Vizela and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vizela and 1.85 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vizela come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 11D 22L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 2.26 PPG from 46 outings (33W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vizela's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across their last 23 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.17 points per game from their last 23 away games (16W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vizela are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.35 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
Vizela (Home) vs SC Braga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vizela
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Vizela vs SC Braga Form FAQs
What form are Vizela and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 13W 11D 22L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 33W 5D 8L in their last 46 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.04 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Vizela or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SC Braga in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SC Braga have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2023, when SC Braga won Vizela 0-4 SC Braga.
Vizela's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
0
Draws
6
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Vizela vs SC Braga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and SC Braga?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vizela have won 0, SC Braga have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and SC Braga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: SC Braga 2-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 39%, SC Braga 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Vizela and 74% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; SC Braga in 35%; Vizela have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vizela vs SC Braga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vizela and SC Braga matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Vizela's recent matches and 56% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vizela and SC Braga matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Vizela's matches and 74% of SC Braga's.
Do Vizela and SC Braga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Vizela's recent matches and 78% of SC Braga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Braga cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Vizela 1-3 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.36 xG and SC Braga 1.85 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SC Braga outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against SC Braga attack 1.38 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 28% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 49%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 44%, SC Braga 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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