Estoril 4-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 71% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estoril face Chaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chaves travel to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to take on Estoril in Primeira Liga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estoril stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Estoril have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Chaves — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Chaves have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estoril 0.70 PPG, Chaves 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Estoril, 1 for Chaves and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Estoril 0–2 Chaves — a Chaves win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chaves trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 41% versus Chaves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 44% | Chaves 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estoril surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Chaves have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 2.42 xG and Chaves 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.123 / defence 0.909 | Chaves attack 0.759 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.289. Chaves's defence rating of 1.423 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estoril's projected output up. Chaves's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Estoril's last 46 games and Chaves's last 46.
Result probabilities: Estoril 71% | Draw 17% | Chaves 12%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.41 | Draw 5.91 | Chaves 8.38. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (71%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Estoril 30% (last 10 home games) | Chaves 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 71% | Draw 17% | Chaves 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Estoril 2.42 / Chaves 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.123 / def 0.909 | Chaves attack 0.759 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Estoril (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Chaves xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Chaves FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Chaves kick off?
Estoril vs Chaves kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Chaves?
Estoril 4 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Estoril vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Chaves part of?
Estoril vs Chaves is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 71% chance of winning, Chaves a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estoril and Chaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estoril vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estoril's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 46 games and Chaves's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.91
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.31
0.89
Chaves xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
9%
11.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
94.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Chaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Estoril and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Estoril and 0.89 for Chaves, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 13W 6D 27L from 46 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 20L across 46 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estoril on 0.98 PPG, Chaves on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 9W 3D 10L from their last 22 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 6W 5D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.09 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Chaves
Blended
Estoril (Home) vs Chaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Estoril vs Chaves Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Chaves in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 13W 6D 27L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Chaves have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Chaves away?
Estoril's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.36 PPG; Chaves away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Dec 2023, when Estoril won Estoril 4-0 Chaves.
Estoril's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estoril
2
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Chaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Chaves?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 1, Chaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Chaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2024: Chaves 2-2 Estoril.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 36%, Chaves 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Estoril) and 41% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 32% of games; Chaves in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Chaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Chaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Estoril's recent matches and 36% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Chaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Estoril's recent games and 41% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Chaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Estoril's recent matches and 54% of Chaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estoril run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Chaves 4-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 2.42 xG and Chaves 0.89 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chaves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Chaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.42, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 71% | Draw 17% | Chaves 12%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 44%, Chaves 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Chaves's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 0.98 PPG, Chaves 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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