Sporting CP 0-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sporting CP face Santa Clara.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sporting CP host Santa Clara at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sporting CP stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's home record at Estádio José Alvalade: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sporting CP have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sporting CP, 1 for Santa Clara and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Sporting CP winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sporting CP in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 36% versus Santa Clara 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 82% | Santa Clara 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.57 xG and Santa Clara 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.551 / defence 0.775 | Santa Clara attack 0.877 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.136. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.551 — their λ of 2.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sporting CP's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sporting CP games / 11 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 76% | Draw 15% | Santa Clara 9%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Santa Clara 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 40% | Santa Clara 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 76% | Draw 15% | Santa Clara 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 50% | xG Sporting CP 2.57 / Santa Clara 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.551 / def 0.775 | Santa Clara attack 0.877 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (76%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Santa Clara xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Santa Clara kick off?
Sporting CP vs Santa Clara kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Santa Clara?
Sporting CP 0 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Sporting CP vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Santa Clara part of?
Sporting CP vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 76% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sporting CP and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Santa Clara?
Record (4 meetings): Sporting CP 3W | Draws 0 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Sporting CP and Santa Clara in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sporting CP vs Santa Clara?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sporting CP's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.57. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.67
9%
11.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
3.34
0.77
Santa Clara xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.67
15%
Draw
11.16
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
8%
13.03
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
1%
145.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.77 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Santa Clara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 11W 0D 0L from 11 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 7W 0D 4L across 11 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santa Clara heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sporting CP are averaging 3.55 goals scored and 0.45 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.27 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games; Santa Clara in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 11W 0D 0L in their last 11 games (3.00 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 7W 0D 4L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Santa Clara away?
Sporting CP's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 3.00 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Sporting CP won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sporting CP's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Sporting CP
0
Draws
2
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 6, Santa Clara have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Sporting CP 4-2 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Santa Clara?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 40%, Santa Clara 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sporting CP) and 40% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Santa Clara in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 40% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sporting CP's recent games and 40% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Sporting CP 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Sporting CP 0-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.57 xG and Santa Clara 0.77 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sporting CP fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.55 / defence 0.78 against Santa Clara attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 76% | Draw 15% | Santa Clara 9%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Santa Clara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 82%, Santa Clara 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Santa Clara's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.91. Form was overturned, with Santa Clara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.