SC Braga 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as SC Braga take on GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as SC Braga welcome GIL Vicente to Estádio Municipal de Braga. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Braga — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga at Estádio Municipal de Braga this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (SC Braga) versus 2.20 (GIL Vicente). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SC Braga, 0 for GIL Vicente and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with SC Braga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SC Braga trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
GIL Vicente trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 48% versus GIL Vicente 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 48% | GIL Vicente 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 0.98 xG and GIL Vicente 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.053 / defence 0.926 | GIL Vicente attack 0.940 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 1.275. Data: 25 SC Braga games / 25 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 29% | Draw 36% | GIL Vicente 35%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | GIL Vicente 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Braga 40% | GIL Vicente 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 29% | Draw 36% | GIL Vicente 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG SC Braga 0.98 / GIL Vicente 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.053 / def 0.926 | GIL Vicente attack 0.940 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.030 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.11
GIL Vicente xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs GIL Vicente kick off?
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
SC Braga 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is SC Braga vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs GIL Vicente part of?
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 29% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SC Braga and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and GIL Vicente?
Record (1 meetings): SC Braga 1W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are SC Braga and GIL Vicente in?
SC Braga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Braga's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.48
36%
2.78
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.09
1.11
GIL Vicente xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SC Braga and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.11 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga's recent record stands at 13W 7D 5L from 25 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 5L across 25 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Braga on 1.84 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Braga have managed 7W 4D 1L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 6W 5D 1L across 12 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.44 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; GIL Vicente in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 13W 7D 5L in their last 25 games (1.84 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 11W 9D 5L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or GIL Vicente away?
SC Braga's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.08 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.92 PPG.
Have SC Braga or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and GIL Vicente runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
SC Braga's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Braga
2
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 5, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and GIL Vicente?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 42%, GIL Vicente 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SC Braga) and 42% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of SC Braga's recent matches and 58% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SC Braga's recent games and 42% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out SC Braga 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat SC Braga 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 0.98 xG and GIL Vicente 1.11 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against GIL Vicente attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 29% | Draw 36% | GIL Vicente 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 48%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Braga 1.84 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.